三木Trader|Oct 27, 2026 15:34
In 1999, Berkshire Hathaway's stock price fell by about 20%, while the S&P 500 rose by 21%. The market questioned whether Buffett's investment philosophy was outdated, but after the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, market opinion shifted dramatically.
Buffett didn't change, or even do anything; what changed was the market's outcome, leading to a complete reversal in market judgment.
Most people's evaluations of certain people and events are based on current results.
Did Duan Yongping make a mistake in his investment in Moutai?
I believe we cannot judge solely based on Moutai's stock price.
In an interview, Duan Yongping discussed his views on Moutai.
He said: He considered selling when Moutai's price was high, but as a fully invested investor, the cash from selling Moutai would inevitably be used to buy other stocks. However, he found there was nowhere for the funds to go after selling Moutai, so he chose to continue holding.
He also said that if he had sold Moutai at that time, it would indeed have been at a high price, but buying other stocks might have resulted in even greater losses.
So, from this perspective, did Duan Yongping make a mistake?
If we only look at it from a stock price perspective, and failing to buy at the peak is considered a mistake, then almost everyone makes mistakes. But if we look at it from the perspective of trading/investment principles, and he still adhered to his principles, is that considered a mistake?
Everyone's perspective is different, so the results will vary. Therefore, I rarely make judgments and try to only state facts.
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