Have you noticed a strange phenomenon: International oil prices are soaring, the 10-year US Treasury yield is stubbornly holding at 5%, yet the probability of an October rate hike has plummeted to 11%. Why is the market so divided? In the past week, AI trading has cooled down: Meta announced increased capital expenditures and its first-ever free cash flow deficit, causing its stock price to plummet 7%; Anthropic reported first-half revenue of $16 billion but a loss of $8 billion; the Nasdaq fell 4.5%. Hot money is withdrawing from overvalued AI stocks and flowing into US Treasuries with a 5% yield. Money buys US Treasuries, and US Treasury yields fall. When yields fall, the market assumes: the Fed might not raise rates. This is the most absurd part. Inflation is still above the 2% target, consumer spending remains strong, and the job market hasn't collapsed. None of the fundamentals supporting a rate hike have disappeared. Crude oil is still above $115, and geopolitical tensions in the Gulf could escalate at any time. This isn't the Fed changing course; it's the stock market that's panicked. The market is betting on a "pause in interest rate hikes," but a pause doesn't mean the end. A December rate hike is a foregone conclusion. This means that the next month or two will be tough for both US stocks and Bitcoin!