Pre Market Thoughts - 26 Oct 26 Yields are lower across the curve after Friday's risk off moves - 10Y is below 5% and the 30Y is below 5.3%. In my previous notes, i talked about the positioning in bond futures - this positioning is still extremely stretched and lends technical support towards the case for lower yields from here. What is interesting with the move lower in yields and the dollar is Gold's performance. This has been a bit of a head scratcher for me because you would have expected Gold to shine in such situations. No pun intended. Instead it got whacked over the head, breaking below the 4000 level. To me that indicates some amount of stress within the system and the last time this happened was in Dec 2008 as Morgan Stanley pointed out - where Gold and every asset was sold to fund margin calls. This is the worst week thus far outside of July (last week). In total, the momentum factor correction or drawdown has exceeded even the dot com bust... In terms of funding shorts, HFs have moved away from META and MSFT and into GOOG and NVDA. L/S net leverage has ...fallen further to 47% - this is near the bottom of the 1Y range. That aside, this coming week we have an extremely packed earnings calendar (http://terminal.gambit.zone/calendar) with 44% of the S&P500 index reporting this week. Notably, SNDK is one to watch on Thursday, for people looking towards memory. There is also FOMC in the middle of the week and i would expect not much risk being added prior to that. In terms of flow, it is interesting - Elon has moved from lambasting memory (particularly as SPCX is in dire need for memory) towards FUDing neoclouds. He has done a masterclass on this, especially given how a few days before he had to shill SPCX's compute revenues and how much compute he was selling at less than 1Y payback periods. However, if Elon can spread enough fear and shut off the financing taps - some of the weaker newer neos will not be able to raise any financing. In particular, for this week - i will be watching for CRWV and NBIS to approach the value zones that i have defined. Memory has also been dragged down with the overall semis market - $00660 was spared a drubbing today as news reported that it was weighing a 16Trn won special dividend (12B USD) funded from the disposal of the Kioxia stake. As more cash returns accrue towards investors, i think this will be how memory revalues back upwards. Return of cash on cash. Crypto, BTC's relative resilience vs alts continues. At this point, in terms of pure trading - i think there are not much high EV moves to make. Alt leaders have also slunk back into weakness and i would not be doing anything here. Good luck!