qinbafrank
qinbafrank|Oct 24, 2026 08:34
According to the latest Fed H4.1 document, as of Wednesday, reserves had fallen to $2.96 trillion, and the Treasury's TGA account held over $940 billion. Looking at the Treasury's bond auction schedule, several bond issuances, including bills and coupons, are scheduled for the end of October, raising a net $132 billion ($106.1 billion in bills and $26 billion in coupons). This means that by the end of the month, TGA will likely rise to around the target range of $1.05 trillion (the same target range set by the Treasury in early August for the end of October). Consequently, reserves may fall back to $2.85 trillion, essentially reaching the liquidity low point previously discussed at the end of October. According to the Treasury's previous plan, TGA will be gradually released starting in November, leading to a rebound in reserves. It seems the previously mentioned optimal buying opportunity for Bitcoin in the latter half or late October may have to wait until next week. Of course, the Treasury bond issuance for November-January 2027 will be announced the week after next. We'll see the specific auction schedule then. The detailed logic behind this Bitcoin correction was discussed here: https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2108351625220026861?s=20 As for the relationship between liquidity, Bitcoin, and the US stock market, Grok provides a detailed overview here: https://((x.com))/i/grok/share/9e2f1e5b82df4dc7a2a366467aa007ea
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