The Kobeissi Letter|Oct 23, 2026 17:35
Investors are betting on more upside in US Treasuries.
The extra cost investors are willing to pay for call options on longer-dated Treasuries relative to puts is up to ~50 basis points, the highest since March 2025.
This marks a sharp reversal from a 250-basis-point premium for puts over calls in late September.
This suggests investors are increasingly betting on further gains in Treasury prices.
Furthermore, one options trade is targeting a drop in the 10Y Note Yield to ~4.60% within a month, involving ~65,000 contracts and costing ~$7 million in premium.
This comes as the 10Y Note Yield has declined below 5.00% for the first time since September 23rd, now down -40 basis points from the October 7th peak.
The bond market is seeing massive swings in price and sentiment.
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