TraderS | 缺德道人|10月 22, 2026 02:50
Tesla $TSLA earnings report is out, confirming several previous points:
1. When SPCX is relatively high and $TSLA is relatively low, a merger is most beneficial for Musk.
2. This time, SPCX's earnings report was good, while $TSLA's was poor.
3. Regardless of the methods used, SPCX's report stacked all the positives.
4. On the $TSLA side, capital expenditures were revised down from $25 billion to $20 billion; revenue was $28.05 billion, essentially flat year-over-year and slightly below analysts' expectations of $28.13 billion; however, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.48, about 9% higher than analysts' expectations.
5. No mention of the merger during Tesla's press conference. Headlines about merger "progress" would prompt arbitrage traders to sell SPCX, and tonight 1.3 billion shares are set to be unlocked—Musk chose to give no ammunition to arbitrage traders before this batch unlocks. Silence is a form of protection for SPCX.
6. The logic behind last week's flying car announcement to grab attention and offset poor performance now makes sense.
7. Investors are gradually losing interest in Tesla's core automotive business. This sector can no longer tell newer, cooler stories, which is one of the key reasons driving the merger—one side has money but no story, the other has a story but lacks money.
Considering all these factors, Tesla's stock price dropped after the earnings report. Over the next year, the merger between the two will likely dominate the news cycle. As the narrative keeps flipping, stock prices will inevitably fluctuate, creating plenty of arbitrage opportunities between the two stocks.
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