Phyrex|Oct 21, 2026 06:39
JPMorgan includes Bitcoin in its long-term return expectations for the first time, with an annualized 10% return higher than U.S. stocks and gold.
In its October 19 release of the '2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions,' JPMorgan Asset Management provided its first-ever long-term return forecast for bitcoin:native. Under the baseline scenario, the annualized compound return over the next decade is projected to be 10%. This report, now in its 31st edition, is primarily used for investment planning over the next 10 to 15 years.
For comparison, the same report forecasts annualized returns of 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks, 4.6% for U.S. intermediate-term Treasury bonds, 6.1% for U.S. investment-grade credit bonds, and 5.5% for gold. In other words, based on JPMorgan's baseline calculations, Bitcoin's long-term return potential surpasses these mainstream assets.
The significance of this lies in Bitcoin's entry into the long-term investment comparison framework of this major asset management institution. Institutional funds require explanations for how buying an asset can generate returns, increase risk, and whether it fits alongside existing stocks and bonds. Now that JPMorgan has separately assessed Bitcoin's returns and risks, fund managers and investment advisors have an additional reference point for discussing allocations.
The report mentions that approximately 10% of surveyed clients already hold crypto assets, while about 17% plan to prioritize crypto assets in their investment considerations. This indicates that, at least among this group of clients, crypto assets have already entered the realm of actual holdings and future investment discussions.
Currently, JPMorgan assumes Bitcoin's annualized volatility to be as high as 55%, roughly three times that of U.S. large-cap stocks, and its correlation with other assets remains unstable. As a result, even after providing return forecasts, Bitcoin has not yet been included in its primary portfolio allocation models. The 10% figure represents a long-term compound return estimate, but holding Bitcoin may still involve significant price surges and pullbacks, and institutions need to evaluate whether it can truly diversify portfolio risks.
For Bitcoin, this is indeed another step forward in institutional acceptance. Traditional asset management firms seriously discussing its returns, risks, and allocation value in long-term reports will provide more investors with a basis for evaluating whether to hold it.
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