深潮TechFlow|Oct 21, 2026 03:19
Da Mo: HDD spot price is 4 to 7 cents/GB, but the market is pricing according to peak prices
According to Tide Research, Morgan Stanley's research report on October 20, 2026 stated that Seagate Technology (STX) is currently priced at $660.81 and Western Digital (WDC) is currently priced at $352.21; The spot transaction price of near line hard disk drives (HDD) is 4 to 7 cents/GB, and the mixed near line contract price is about 1.5 cents/GB; the CY27/CY28 industry supply shortage is about 400 exabytes (EB). Da Mo's judgment is that the implied cycle of the 8-fold P/E ratio given by the market to HDD peaked in FY28, and this pricing is too punitive; The spot price of 4 to 7 cents/GB, CY27/CY28 shortage of 400EB, does not support peaking. The report reiterates the increase in holdings of STX and WDC, with target prices of $1200 for STX and $643 for WDC, making STX the preferred choice for IT hardware once again. Da Mo expects Seagate's earnings per share for the December quarter to be $9.54, which is 12% higher than market consensus; Western Digital's quarterly earnings per share for December were $5.25, 10% higher than market consensus. WDC buyers have lower expectations and better financial reporting tactics.
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