In the past four US stock reporting seasons, the first two were reports (last year's third quarter report was at the end of October and beginning of November, and last year's fourth quarter report was at the end of January and beginning of February this year) that showed a market decline, while the last two (this year's first quarter report in mid to late April and second quarter report in mid to late July) were reports that showed a market decline before the release of the reports, followed by an increase. Why? Personal perspective; Last year's third quarter happened to be the time when big tech companies began to significantly increase their capital expenditures. The market began discussing whether such significant capital expenditures could be recouped in the third quarter financial reports. In November of last year, here's the link: https://(((((x.com)))/qinba Frank/status/1988826907534860695? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A specifically discussed the three major debates on AI in 23-25 years. At that time, there were already signs of a significant increase in capital expenditures, but the ARR of the large model had not yet shown signs of growth compared to the performance of the super large cloud vendors, so the market naturally worried. 1. This concern reached its peak at the end of January and beginning of February this year (the fourth quarter financial report of 2025), and we also talked about it at that time https://((((((x.com))))))/qinbafrank/status/2018978431732760904? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A's concerns about capital expenditures will lead to a wave of "spring market crash", followed by a mid level adjustment in the market at the end of February due to the surge in oil prices caused by the Iran War; 2. And then in April here https://((((x.com)))/qinbufark/status/2041776052167483750? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A, as we talk about the end of the "spring market", on the one hand, the US and Iran have eased, and on the other hand, we are about to enter the first quarter financial reporting season, and the financial reports will be very good. Then, as we approached the surge in ARR that emerged from Anthropic, the first quarter earnings report of the super large cloud factory was indeed good, and there was a magnificent market trend from April to June; 3. In July, the deleveraging of the US stock market led to a sharp decline, and in late July, Microsoft and Amazon's financial reports exceeded expectations (in fact, Google's financial report also exceeded expectations at that time, but the market was still concerned about the first significant decline in cash flow), which drove the beginning of August to strengthen. At that time, it was also written that August is the best summer https://((((x.com)))/qinbafrank/status/2083185986616357116? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A 4. A few days ago, here was https://((((x.com)))/qinbafrank/status/2111863811619918024? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A has been sorted out. What can be seen? In the past four financial reporting seasons, the first two capital expenditures have just skyrocketed, and every time the financial report comes out, the market worries more, so the financial report always falls, especially in February and March this year until the next financial reporting season. But since April, the first quarter earnings season has been reversed, and after the release of the earnings report, the market has been in a state of high sentiment and a surge. This was the case in April and mid to late July, because the commercialization of AI not only began but also accelerated, so the first two times (the first and second quarters of this year) were able to exceed expectations, thereby supporting the market's upward trend. This time it's a repeat, a wave of market trends in August and September, coupled with macro shocks and a drop towards the end of the earnings season. It's time again for the financial report to provide unexpected results to boost confidence and expectations. Why do you think this earnings season will be good? We have actually talked about it many times before: 1) Starting from June, cloud vendors have deployed open-source models and self-developed medium-sized models, resulting in an increase in gross profit margin; 2) The adoption of enterprise AI entering deep waters and token consumption is accelerating; 3) AI has only been commercialized on a large scale for two quarters and has not yet entered a saturation period. So based on this, it is believed that the financial reports of super large cloud vendors are very good At the beginning of September, here is https://(((x.com))/168x_portal/status/2112078695041257557? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A has been discussed before. We will find out in the next few days until next week, and then we will know exactly how it is. From a trading perspective, it is possible to wait until the financial report is fully disclosed before making a decision. The certainty is high, and if the financial report is indeed good, the market will continue for a long time and will not quickly finish. Will there be a time in the future when the commercialization of AI slows down slower than expected? It is highly likely that this will still happen, but it may not be this time. Of course, I may have read it wrong too.