⚡ A 'big reckoning' sweeping across the AI empire and global finance has begun. Let's first look at the two most accurate big bears. Gao Zhikai, a former Morgan Stanley executive, predicted that the global financial crisis in the next 12 months would be triggered by the collapse of the AI foam, which is much larger than that in 2008. Michael Burry, who became famous for short selling subprime mortgages in 2008, not only shorted the Nasdaq and AI concept stocks, but also heavily shorted the Nasdaq 100 and semiconductors, predicting that the US stock market would peak within 9 months. What exactly are they seeing? What I see is a crack and a roof! It's not that no one is using AI anymore, it's the "financial pipeline" that supports AI's rapid growth, which is being blocked. First, cracks in AI foam may have appeared. The bloodiest crack is in CoreWeave. The junk bond yield of this AI computing giant has skyrocketed to 15.7%, with a five-year default probability implied by CDS exceeding 60%. What's even more terrifying is its structure of "junk bonds nested with junk bonds": 14 billion yuan of junk bonds, supported by the only tenant of the data center, it, and itself, relying on issuing junk bonds to survive. Once the financing cost swallows up profits, the chain instantly breaks. That's why Philadelphia Semiconductor has been falling for 8 consecutive days. It's not that demand has collapsed, it's the logic of "borrowing money to buy cards" that can't be played anymore. Goldman Sachs has pointed out a cold cycle: AI capital expenditures are pushing up long-term interest rates, while high interest rates are eating back at the empire's most vulnerable seven inches. Secondly, the top of the US stock market is likely under construction. The giants you see are still struggling, but in fact, the Nasdaq has been hijacked by a few AI core stocks. The Nasdaq is floating in the clouds, while individual stocks are struggling in the mud. As liquidity is drained by high interest rates, AI small stocks that rely on debt for survival are facing the risk of plummeting to zero. This is not a simple callback, it is a valuation reshaping of the top of the US stock market. The collapse of the AI foam and the peak decline of US stocks will trigger a global financial crisis. The cracks appearing in the current AI foam are spreading outward through excessive correlation. The correlation between Bitcoin and US stock AI has skyrocketed to 0.9, and liquidity has been drained. It is now completely a "high leverage shadow" of AI technology stocks. But this is not the end of the AI industry. In 2000, the Internet foam burst, but the Internet finally won. This time it's the same, the dead are low-quality assets that rely on debt to survive, while the surviving ones are giants with real blood making capabilities and the prosperous development of industries through updates and iterations. The settlement node is likely to be in 2027. Once the three factors of excess computing power, falsified capital expenditures, and average valuation return are combined, the US stock market will be completely dragged down and begin a prolonged downward trend. Because this is the iron law of the capital cycle, which cannot be solved by printing money and shouting. If AI and the US stock market really collapse in 2027, triggering a global financial crisis, Bitcoin's current 80000 and the following 70000 are highly likely to be unsustainable. The first target price for the decline is around 60K (200 week moving average), and the second target is around 50K. But this does not change the direction of the bull market. Every deep callback is the starting point of the next cycle. 70K is the ultimate target price in the baseline scenario and the intermediate price in the extreme scenario. What we need to do now is not to bet 70K to hold on, but to control our positions, keep enough bullets, and wait for the real bottom signal to appear. Surviving in this big budget and global financial crisis is more important than anything else. ---Mr. Xiaolong, October 20th, 2026---