In late October, the real direction choice is coming soon! Bitcoin: Native has maintained its upward trend line at 80000 and returned to above 82000, indicating that the bullish defense is still in place. However, the price has not recovered from the previous round of decline, and MACD has not truly strengthened. OKX The 4-hour holding volume rebounded with the rebound, and the funding rate remained positive. The current increase is still driven by contract funds, and the relay of spot prices is not obvious. The two red circles on the daily chart appear to be sideways, but their nature is different. On the left side, 76000-82000 completed a turnover and broke through with increased volume; Since the decline from 87400 on the right side, the high point has continued to move downwards, with increasing volume during the decline and decreasing volume during the rebound, indicating that there are still many chips waiting to be redeemed between 83000 and 86000. ETF feedback is more direct. Over the past two weeks, ETFs have accumulated a net outflow of approximately $907 million, with another outflow of $82.4 million on October 16th. Institutions have not completely exited the market, but it cannot be considered a rush to raise funds. Macroscopically, there are also contradictions. The probability of a rate hike in October has dropped to about 12% to 15%, and US bond yields have also fallen from their high levels; But the CPI rose to 3.7% in September, and the expected interest rate hike in December is close to 89%. The short-term pressure has eased, but it does not mean that liquidity will ease again. My judgment: For the remaining time of October, we will focus on the rebound and repair, and temporarily not look directly at the main uptrend. Stand firm at 83000, continue to look at 84000-85000; Only when the daily trading volume recovers 85000 and the ETF resumes continuous inflows, are they eligible to challenge 86500-87400. If the rebound fails to break through 84000 and then falls below 81500, there is a high probability of testing 80000 again. The daily closing loss is 79700, and looking down at 78000, the extreme situation is to defend 76000. 80000 decides to defend, 85000 decides to attack. In this range, patiently waiting for confirmation is more important than rushing to judge the bull or bear.