Hedge fund manager Dan Niles states that there is a high probability that AI stocks will fall by 30% to 50% at the beginning of the year His reason is that OpenAI and Anthropic account for half of the backlog of orders from large-scale manufacturers He said it looks like 97 or 98 now, not like 99. AI infrastructure has reached its fourth year, which is the same as that of the Internet in the third and fourth years In the 1997 Thai currency crisis, the S&P fell 11% for the year and rose 31% for the whole year In 1998, Russia defaulted and LTCM collapsed, causing the S&P to fall 19% for the year and rise 27% for the whole year. They all experienced a mid year drop and a year-end increase The real variable is agentic AI. The set of things released at the end of November last year became OpenClaw on January 30th of this year Previously, you asked it to answer, but now it is responsible for opening web pages, pulling data, and filling in Excel files on its own For the same thing, token consumption is 10 to 100 times higher than that of chatbot AI 3/The numbers also match Two months before January 30th, the token increased by 20%. In the next two months, it increased by 120% 4/Capital expenditures are revised three times a year. At the beginning of the year, the expected increase was 30%, but after the first quarter report, it became 60%. A few weeks ago, major companies reported again, and it became 70% 5/Hardware transition from GPU to CPU Training is the job of GPU, while agentic requires orchestration and CPU is more suitable Originally, it was eight GPUs paired with one CPU, which was close to one-to-one in the era of agentic Intel and AMD benefit, NVIDIA suffers marginal losses, and Broadcom also gains a share due to memory and optical modules Semiconductor is the most overbought since 2000, with a short-term drop of 15 to 20% following the index. He said it's not surprising at all But it will be even higher before the end of the year 7/The real trouble will come early next year The growth rate of agentic will significantly slow down by early next year due to its base, and at that time, the stocks of large companies may drop by 30% to 50% from their highs Referring to 2022, MAG7 fell an average of 46%, which is also the wave of infrastructure just after COVID OpenAI and Anthropic account for half of the backlog orders Anthropic's annualized revenue is approximately $45 billion, while OpenAI's is approximately $24 billion. At the beginning of 2025, these two companies will still be 1 billion and 6 billion He judged that OpenAI's cash flow could not sustain its ambitions, and if either of these two companies had problems, it would be a big problem 9/IPO will withdraw funds. OpenAI, SpaceX, and Anthropic are all going public, with valuations in the trillions Mutual funds don't have any spare money, so if you want to buy, you have to sell something else These giant new stocks will also be quickly included in the index, diluting the weight of other stocks One of the three markets is wrong. The stock market has reached a historic high, oil prices have risen by 60% this year, and the 30-year US Treasury yield has hit a new high this year It's impossible for all three to be correct, so we should take more cash now Among the giants, only Google has a full stack. Gemini、 We have self-developed chips, advertising cash flow, and distribution of Android and Pixel, all four of which are included The cloud growth rate has accelerated from 48 to 63. AWS from 24 to 28, Microsoft from 38 to 39 The weakest is Microsoft Meta does not have a public cloud, its self-developed chips are outdated, and the number of family app users has decreased for the first time compared to the previous period 12/Quantum is optimistic in the long term, but expensive in the short term He quoted Bill Gates' saying: Technology is always overvalued in the short term and undervalued in the long term And on the day when quantum becomes real, the demand for classical computing power will drop, which is a double-edged sword His approach is just one sentence: stay flexible and don't be too greedy when the price rises Every morning, first check three numbers: oil price, bond interest rate, and stock market This tweet is sponsored by @ MSX_CN Allow high-quality assets to circulate freely Real value on the blockchain from Wall Street to your wallet