Many friends love to ask: Where is Bitcoin's bottom? Where is Bitcoin's peak this cycle? Let’s take a look at a very meaningful analysis. Looking back at recent BTC bull and bear cycles, there’s a fascinating indicator: the market cap ratio of BTC to gold. The BTC-to-gold market cap ratio shows a clear step-like upward trend: The bull market peaks rose from 4.2% in 2017 to 10.3% in 2021, and are projected to rise to 11.4% in 2025. Meanwhile, the bear market lows climbed from 0.73% in 2018 to 2.65% in 2022, and are expected to reach a phase low of about 4.2% by June 2026. This cycle’s bear market phase low is already close to the peak of the 2017 bull market. BTC experiences significant pullbacks in every bear market, but its valuation benchmark relative to gold keeps rising. If the BTC-to-gold market cap ratio returns to the previous high of 11.4%, it corresponds to a BTC price of approximately $167,000—this would be the peak range for this cycle. However, if gold prices rise, say by 50%, then Bitcoin’s peak price this cycle could hit $250,000. The underlying fundamental reason is simple: fiat currency depreciation.