Relly | 期权策略/宏观分析|Oct 15, 2026 20:08
Today, the neocloud Big Three put on a 'Great Miracle Day' performance.
The leader of this recent downturn, CRWV, had been plummeting for days due to Musk's FUD, but today, thanks to Huang's verbal intervention, it bounced back dramatically.
Quick recap:
The core reason for this crash was the debt panic surrounding AI data centers, with rising CPI adding fuel to the fire.
In reality, CRWV's debt issues aren't as severe as they seem. First off, the proportion of high-interest debt is extremely low. Even though bond yields have surged to 15%, it doesn't mean CRWV has to pay 15% interest—the coupon rate on that high-interest debt is only 9%. As for NBIS, it got dragged down by association, but its debt situation is much healthier than CRWV's. It's a solid neocloud player.
This wave of sharp sell-offs isn't just a simple short-selling move. It's likely that some funds were forced to liquidate, triggering a reverse gamma squeeze, which is why the drop was so brutal.
Today, the Nasdaq 100 hit a critical mid-term support level. Index support levels are usually quite strong and not easily broken, so when the market dipped at the open, it was the right time to act.
This morning, I trimmed some of my long-term GOOG positions to add to my NBIS holdings and bottom-fish TQQQ and SOXL. Options expire tomorrow—only if we close above key levels can we call this a reversal.
#neocloud #CRWV #NBIS #TQQQ #SOXL #AI #stocks #investing
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