很大很大的橙子
很大很大的橙子|Oct 15, 2026 12:41
SK Hynix has fallen sharply in the stock market these days, but when I was monitoring the market, I noticed an interesting divergence: its contract holdings (OI) on Binance have instead surged against the trend. I pulled out the off chain data from 08:00 on October 12th to 18:00 on October 15th Beijing time and checked it: Hynix Korean stock contract: The price fell by about 23.2%, but the number of open positions on the currency basis surged by 108.3%, and the nominal position on the U basis increased from 315 million to 504 million USDT. Hynix ADR contract: The price fell by about 19.3%, the open interest increased by 46.8%, and the nominal position rose from 191 million USDT to 226 million USDT. Spot prices are falling, while derivative positions on the exchange are piling up crazily. Looking at the long short structure again, the tendency is very obvious: the proportion of long accounts in Korean stock contracts has skyrocketed from 78.02% to 86.13%; The ADR contract has also increased from 60.78% to 72.38%. Derivatives correspond to one lot more and one lot short, and an increase in OI itself does not indicate a long short direction. But when the two indicators of "doubling of OI+proportion of long accounts soaring to 86%" are stacked together, the language of the market is very clear: in this wave of decline, a large number of retail investors have taken advantage of Binance to buy from the bottom against the trend, while market makers and institutional investors have taken on huge short opponent positions on the other end. How much volume did these people who use stablecoins to trade stocks actually achieve? I compared the transaction volume of Binance with the spot stocks of the US and South Korea. Let's first take a look at the US ADR of Hynix (October 12-14, USDT converted to USD at a 1:1 ratio): On October 12th, ADR transactions on the US stock market reached 2.389 billion yuan, while Binance transactions reached 247 million yuan (10.4%) On October 13th, ADR transactions in the US stock market reached 3.487 billion yuan, while Binance transactions reached 556 million yuan (accounting for 16.0%) On October 14th, ADR transactions in the US stock market reached 3.362 billion yuan, while Binance transactions reached 492 million yuan (accounting for 14.6%) Three day total: US stock ADR transactions of 9.238 billion | Binance transactions of 1.295 billion (accounting for 14.0%) (Note: The US stock market has traded approximately 14.72 million, 22.2 million, and 22.79 million shares in the past three days, estimated based on daily trading volume multiplied by closing price) Looking at the Korean stock market again, Binance's relative size is even more exaggerated: In the same three days, the trading volume of South Korean stocks was equivalent to about 13.8 billion US dollars, while Binance's South Korean stock contract generated a trading volume of 3.733 billion USDT, directly accounting for 27% of the local spot trading volume in South Korea. Add up the two plates: Within three days, the total transaction volume of Binance Hynix contract was 5.028 billion USDT; During the same period, the total transaction volume in the two spot markets of the United States and South Korea was approximately $23.04 billion. Looking at the nominal transaction volume alone, Binance alone is equivalent to 21.8% (over 20%) of the total volume of traditional spot markets. This magnitude cannot be ignored even in traditional secondary markets. Of course, when it comes to business, the data caliber needs to be clear: perpetual contracts come with high leverage and frequent turnover, and a nominal transaction volume of 5 billion does not necessarily mean a net inflow of 5 billion real gold and silver; This 21.8% cannot be directly counted as market share, as the denominator has not yet taken into account the large options and stock index futures in the traditional market. But even after removing leverage moisture, there is still a set of open market data that is very indicative of the problem: During these three days, 69.8% of the trades for Binance Hynix ADR contracts occurred outside the regular trading hours (6.5 hours) of the US stock market. If only counting the opening period of the US stock market, the three-day trading volume of Binance ADR contract is about 391 million USDT, which is approximately 4.2% of the daily trading volume of the US stock market. That is to say, the largest PMF (Product Market Fit) of perpetual stock contracts currently caters to 24/7 trading needs. Although price discovery is also available in pre-market, post market, night market, and Korean time zones, these nearly 70% of out of market transactions indicate that a considerable amount of funds are using cryptocurrency exchanges as a 7 × 24-hour global stock risk hedging pool. The financial attributes and transmission mechanism behind this are the most worth pondering: Firstly, the collision of dimensionality reduction in trading habits. For funds accustomed to the high volatility of Crypto, the continuous 20% drop in traditional leading stocks is a natural break even point. Now there is no need to go through the tedious process of depositing and withdrawing funds to open a traditional brokerage account. You can simply open it with one click in your familiar U-standard account. Secondly, the real buying potential brought by cross market Delta hedging. When retail investors in the cryptocurrency market crazily open multiple positions on Binance, market makers (MM) passively take short positions. In order to maintain Delta neutrality, MM is likely to need to buy positive stocks in the Korean spot or US stock ADR market for hedging (of course, the specific hedging ratio depends on MM's internal inventory, cross exchange positions, and net exposure, and will not be a 1:1 transmission). This means that the FOMO bottom buying sentiment in the stablecoin market is breaking through barriers through market makers' arbitrage and hedging mechanisms, becoming a real buying trend in traditional stock markets. Previously, we used to focus solely on how the US stock market could lead to market crashes or cryptocurrency flying circles. But with the rise of liquidity in perpetual stock contracts, the stablecoin trading system has begun to reverse penetrate the pricing process of traditional assets. I have always believed that sooner or later, the cryptocurrency industry will gradually grasp the pricing power of the US stock market. The game of over 5 billion US dollars by Hynix proves that the traditional stock market has already gained a group of financially abundant and extremely bloodthirsty stablecoin players. In the future, when analyzing the microstructure and sentiment of popular stocks, in addition to focusing on traditional options Gamma and dark pool data, OI, Funding Rate, and off market transactions in cryptocurrency exchanges may also need to be placed on the trader's monitoring panel.
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