qinbafrank|10月 14, 2026 13:37
If the Federal Reserve had to look for evidence of no interest rate hike in October in the September CPI data, it would be this, according to BLS Table 3 (Special Aggregate Index):
1)All items less food, shelter, and energy( Excluding the indices of food, housing, and energy, the year-on-year growth rate is about+2.0%, and the month on month growth rate is about 0.3-0.4%.
2)All items less food, shelter, energy, and used cars and trucks( Excluding food, housing, energy, and used cars: approximately+2.3% year-on-year and approximately 0.3-0.4% month on month.
This' super core '(excluding non housing core parts after housing and used cars more strictly) is indeed relatively mild, close to or only slightly higher than the 2% target range, significantly lower than the overall core CPI of 2.6% year-on-year. It states:
1) The core inflationary pressure outside of housing is not strong;
2) After excluding energy shocks and fluctuations in some second-hand cars, the more "clean" price pressure remains controllable.
3) Housing is a lagging indicator (rent and OER reflect past lease contracts), while energy is a highly volatile term that can better reflect current potential trends after being removed.
Federal Reserve officials (especially those who are more concerned about "sticky service inflation") do indeed look at indicators such as core services ex shaker. The current non housing sector is more moderate, indicating that inflationary pressures are more concentrated on energy and housing lags rather than widespread spread. Reduced the urgency of "inflation spreading widely and requiring immediate interest rate hikes".
The Federal Reserve focuses more on PCE rather than CPI: CPI and PCE have different weights and coverage ranges (PCE is usually slightly lower). The PCE data for September will not be released until the end of the month, and the market and officials will pay more attention to the transmission of PPI to PCE.
Tomorrow's PPI data is also crucial.
Share To
Timeline
HotFlash
APP
X
Telegram
CopyLink