Pre Market Thoughts 14 Oct 26Pre Market Thoughts 14 Oct 26 The 2 upcoming risk events for today is the CPI release at 830AM ET as well as Anthropic releasing some information ahead of their IPO. This directly feeds into the 2 biggest driver of macro and markets currently - which is yields and the AI buildout. First of, with regards to CPI numbers - its the last before mid terms. The more cynical amongst us would think that there would be some window dressing on the numbers. Personally i think this would spark a risk on move that i would probably trim some of my dip buys into. On the Anthropic numbers, the entire semi investor community is on edge. For good reason, over the last week, select names have been battered by 10-20% or even more for the smaller caps. We are essentially seeing a rerun of the derisking in July. Memory in particular has been hit very hard. The anthropic numbers will be essential to contain some amount of fear. It is also interesting that Hock's remarks were taken entirely out of context and the mainstream media ran with it. For short term price action, this behavior is never what you want to see because it points to shorter term weakness. For longer term investors, these often creates the best buying opportunities into the market. In yesterday's sell off and rebound, a few things are interesting to me. 1 - SNDK bottomed out alot earlier and outperformed MU. For the broadest part of the entire rally across march, april july - SNDK has always led moves to the downside and also to the upside. In July, SNDK bottomed out at 1000 first and even after MU moved from 800 to 700, SNDK held above 1000. This price action is a good sign post for me, with regards to the next 48 hours of price prediction. 2 - Next on CBRS, this has been a name i followed, yesterday's strength was also remarkable to me and i have added further onto the ticker. 3 - Neoclouds on the other hand are not looking so hot. Especially with CRWV bonds hitting 15% yields. This is reflective of the demand for funding in the sector. Doing a buildout via equity might be the best possible path ahead. NBIS however was very strong with it recovering the earlier dip. All in all, i would be expecting a rally post CPI numbers. Anthropic data releases is anyone's guess. However, if local lows are breached, i would cut most of the positions (SOXL/SNDK/MU/NBIS) here. MAGS have gotten some attention. While i like the hyperscaler thesis on a medium term, in the short term - positioning for hyperscalers/mags have been the highest ever. If we are in a market that is trading against positioning, this would probably indicate weakness for mags int he period ahead. Don't @ me. I am just a messenger. On crypto, i remain consistent that BTC looks alot better than alts. Since warning about the low liquidity in some of the alt attention driven pumps - those tickers like $W, STRK have given back quite a bit of their gains. Personally, i think most of the tickers are a coin toss, there is still not enough liquidity for a broad based rally in everything. Even early runners like ZEC, NEAR, VVV have started on their consolidation/chop leg. NEAR especially, since it made a local high just this week.... However, this is also the time where i think it makes sense to buy the tickers that you actually have a thesis for - buy when its down, not when its high. I know some people like names like PUMP, ENA, CHIP etc - i have not done my research into them but if i was interested in those names, this would be when i would buy in. After posting that onchain looks bottomed, some of these tickers have made local bottoms. The ecosystem i like the best for these plays is on RH. I wont talk about these tickers here given its low in liquidity. PRL has made a new high - I posted about this at around 0.5-0.6. It remains by far the strongest alt in terms of attention to bagholder ratio. This tells me how much sidelined money there is. My conclusion post token was that there was alot of questions and attention, but nobody had really large bags - i.e underexposed. It was 1-1.1 then. Almost a double. I guess IRL sleuthing still works! I believe that PRL would soon start to get listed as well, which is where attention would funnel in even more as for the first time, many funds are also sidelined. In fact, risk taking retail who dared to rawdog safetrade were the only ones who managed to get some sizeable exposure. Most funds have strict restrictions on what exchanges they can interface with. Paper trade, is now probably +EV for almost all the participants who took part on day 1. I will have a longer article on it shortly. I think this is the best venue for retail to trade because there is no slippage, no trading fee AND you get paid PAPER for losing money. There are 2 roles to play - 1 is farming PAPER and trying to be a part of the liquidity provider. The other is to use PAPERTRADE and make money off it. The terminal will facilitate this very shortly Good luck!