Bitcoin Likely to See No Sustained Uptrend Before March 2027 US tech stocks plummeted, Bitcoin plummeted! What's the root cause? Brothers and sisters, today we'll discuss a longer-term assessment. The bear market is indeed over; the bottom at 57,800 was valid, no doubt about that. However, the end of the bear market doesn't mean the bull market will continue indefinitely. Bull markets also have pullbacks, and they also experience repeated fluctuations and bottoming processes, which may take longer than you think. I. Why is it unlikely that Bitcoin will see a sustained uptrend before March 2027? A December rate hike is practically a certainty, and there's a high probability of another one next March. The 10-year US Treasury yield is still at 4.95%, and the US dollar index is above 101. Both of these factors will drain liquidity from global markets. Funds only truly flow into risk assets when interest rates decline and the dollar weakens, and these conditions are not currently met. This is the most crucial point; everything else is secondary. II. Institutional Investors Lack Cohesion ETFs are currently experiencing a back-and-forth flow of funds. While there were continuous outflows in the past few days, yesterday's inflow of only 75 million is too small to be considered a return of buying pressure. More importantly, BlackRock has been selling in recent days. Once a leading institution shifts its focus, other funds tend to remain on the sidelines. I don't know what negative news BlackRock has seen, but it has been consistently selling BTC. ETFs have been the biggest driver of the market for the past three months, but now this driving force is intermittent, so it's normal that prices haven't risen significantly. III. Miners are Turning Against Each Other, a Warning Sign Miners are collectively selling off Bitcoin and diverting funds to AI data centers. This isn't just short-term sentiment; it reflects a changing industry logic, with computing power funds flowing towards higher-return AI. This selling is ongoing, not a one-off event. This is a new variable in this round, not present before. IV. Even Whales are Split Mid-sized whales are still accumulating, but long-term holders significantly reduced their holdings in the third quarter, and super whales are also net sellers. The bulls haven't formed a united front; a single mid-sized whale can't sustain the overall market. V. Therefore, the conclusion is that the market will experience wide-range fluctuations until March next year. The bear market is over, but the bull market is turning back, with repeated fluctuations and bottoming processes. This bottoming process will likely continue until after March next year. Under the extreme scenario of no global financial crisis, the lowest point could be around 70,000, which is the area where the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the larger cycle and the 0.382 level of the smaller cycle overlap. That area offers the strongest support. Generally, a drop to around 73K would be sufficient, as this level has double support from the weekly 50-day moving average and the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level. In terms of contract trading, it's actually very simple: don't dream of trends, trade within ranges. Don't chase highs and lows. The most common mistake in a range-bound market is using trend-following thinking to trade within a range. In short, we are currently in the bottoming phase of a bull market, not a bear market, nor is it the main upward wave. Patience is more important than prediction. Bitcoin (BTC) 3D Integrated Trading Analysis, Natural Trading Theory, and Volume Refinement