Rates markets are pricing a more aggressive Fed than leading inflation indicators support. Markets now expect four to five hikes. Our leading inflation index has pointed to easing price pressure since April, and that index tends to move about nine months ahead of global CPI. That gap is now weighing on our Macro Regime model, which treats hike pricing into cooling inflation as a possible policy error. The model has been neutral since November 2025. Weaker liquidity and those hike expectations have pushed it to the cautious end of that range. Strong growth should keep the model from breaking lower. Consumers are still spending, credit spreads are tight and risk assets have absorbed higher 10-year yields without stress. Neutral periods have historically delivered positive returns for risk assets, though with more downside volatility than risk-on regimes. The next few inflation prints will show whether markets have priced too many hikes. Hotter data would add to that pricing and could tip the model toward risk-off. Softer data would take some of those hikes back out. The leading indicators point to a Fed with less hiking left to do than markets expect.