AB Kuai.Dong|Oct 13, 2026 01:23
Elon Musk's short essay last night caused even more panic in the semiconductor market, and today the South Korean stock market experienced another sudden halt.
The reason behind this is that recently, China's Changxin Storage CXMT has made rapid progress, accounting for about 9-10% of global memory DRAM revenue. Just a few days ago, their president announced progress on a new architecture and plans to launch DDR5 server memory using this technology by the end of 2026.
As a result, this is interpreted in English as China possibly catching up or even leading in server DRAM, while Samsung may only introduce similar technology around 2028.
As a result, memory related stocks such as Micron and SanDisk collectively fell on the same day.
Some people think that the drop is unreasonable because announcing it does not mean that mass production can really be achieved, even if the yield is high and the cost is low. Moreover, the demand for AI is too high now, and even with more supply, it cannot be filled. After all, this is a regular DDR5, not a more profitable HBM.
But Musk poured cold water directly, believing that once China understands the manufacturing process of a certain product, its expansion capacity is often faster than the rest of the world combined. Lithium batteries and solar panels are examples.
SpaceX is a rare exception, but now, apart from SpaceX, China already accounts for the majority of non SpaceX rocket satellites' orbital mass worldwide.
He predicted that memory may also be similar, after all, three years ago memory was still a low profit commodity, and standardized ordinary memory such as LPDDR5/6 seems to be solved quickly in China.
But more advanced things, such as the new HBM architecture, SRAM layers underneath logic chips, and memory cooling, will be more difficult to implement.
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