JPMorgan Global Commodities Watch Crude oil prices are supported by shipping bottlenecks in the short term, but prices are expected to drop significantly by 2027. Copper, gold, and agricultural products are key areas of focus. JPMorgan's latest report highlights that crude oil prices are now approaching April highs again, but the driving factor has shifted from traditional supply shortages to global shipping capacity constraints and reduced transportation efficiency. The flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz has risen from 7–8 million barrels/day in July–August to 12 million barrels/day. Out of the 923 VLCC oil tankers globally, 766 are currently in operation, while approximately 124 Iranian tankers have been sidelined due to sanctions, reducing effective shipping capacity and driving up transportation costs. Meanwhile, global diesel supply remains tight, and the G7 has announced the release of 100 million barrels of strategic reserves over four months. However, most of this is part of previously committed quotas, meaning actual new supply is limited. JPMorgan forecasts that the average price of WTI crude oil will drop from $81 in 2026 to $59 in 2027, while Brent crude will fall from $87 to $63. On the metals front, China's inventories of copper, aluminum, and zinc continue to decline, with aluminum stockpiles dropping by approximately 800,000 tons since June, improving the supply-demand balance. JPMorgan predicts that the average price of copper will reach $13,800/ton in 2027, while gold will rise further to $4,775/ounce. Additionally, the El Niño phenomenon is rapidly intensifying, with a 75% chance of becoming the strongest event since 1950 between October and December. Agricultural production in Indonesia, Brazil, and Southeast Asia faces potential disruptions, with food prices and inflationary pressures likely to peak in Q1 2027. In Europe, natural gas demand is expected to weaken due to a mild winter forecast. Although Qatar's LNG exports remain constrained by shipping capacity, short-term demand softness is expected to suppress prices.