[U.S. Treasury Sell-Off Flashes Red: Term Premium Hits Decade High, Diverging from Fed Path] Odaily Planet Daily News – The yield on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds has recently climbed to a more than 20-year high. However, what Wall Street is truly wary of is not just whether the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates, but a metric that has rarely drawn attention from ordinary investors in the past—the term premium, which is rising rapidly. According to the New York Fed model, the term premium on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has risen approximately 40 basis points since mid-September to around 0.98%, reaching its highest level since 2014. Over the same period, the 10-year Treasury yield has increased by about 30 basis points. Another model, which incorporates economists' forecasts of Federal Reserve interest rate policies, shows that the 10-year term premium has already risen to 1.08%, the highest level since 2010. Frank Rybinski, Head of Macro Strategy at Aegon Asset Management, stated that while different models yield varying results, all indicators currently point in the same direction—the term premium is rising. This suggests that the current rise in long-term rates may be more enduring than a rally driven solely by expectations of Federal Reserve policy.