Let’s talk about the main macro drivers for BTC’s future market trends—these factors take priority over rate cuts. By the second half of 2026, the U.S. government will inevitably face massive fiscal deficits, which will push it to aggressively issue bonds for financing. On the other hand, the financial system, represented by Wall Street, has limited room on its balance sheets and can hardly absorb more long-term Treasury bonds. This is what’s called long-end duration indigestion—when no one wants to buy long-term bonds, yields skyrocket, which in turn crushes various risk assets. So, the U.S. Treasury’s obvious play here is to shift from long-term bonds to short-term bonds: The Treasury will significantly reduce the issuance of 10-year and 30-year long-term bonds, instead ramping up the issuance of short-term bonds with maturities under one year, while using funds to buy back existing long-term bonds from the market. Once this conversion operation is complete, the total U.S. debt will still remain sky-high, the fiscal deficit will still be a bottomless pit, and the Fed may still maintain relatively high benchmark interest rates to combat inflation. However, the marginal selling pressure on long-term bonds will disappear, and short-term dollar liquidity within the financial system will become extremely abundant. For BTC—or the entire crypto market—the foundation of a bull run ultimately lies in the overflow of global fiat liquidity. So, when short-term liquidity floods the market, it naturally flows into BTC and crypto, which are higher-volatility assets.