金十数据|Oct 07, 2026 09:51
[Bank of America: Bonds Truly Attractive for the First Time in Decades, U.S. Stocks May Underperform Treasuries Over the Next Decade]
Jin10 News, October 7 – Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America, stated that for the first time in decades, bonds have truly become a competitive alternative to the stock market. She also warned that investor sentiment is currently at a high level, which means the stock market is more vulnerable to negative surprises, and the room for further upside beyond expectations is relatively limited.
Subramanian noted that the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury has already exceeded 5%, while Bank of America's own valuation model indicates that the annualized return of the S&P 500 Index over the next 10 years may not reach this level. She pointed out that U.S. policymakers are working to prevent long-term interest rates from rising too high. Both the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury Secretary are closely monitoring changes at the long end of the yield curve.
Meanwhile, demographic shifts suggest that the upper limit for U.S. interest rates may be lower than the levels seen in the 1970s and 1980s. Additionally, artificial intelligence may bring some deflationary effects in the future, thereby alleviating long-term inflation and interest rate pressures.
Against this backdrop, Subramanian believes that the environment for bond allocation is becoming increasingly favorable, as it may be difficult for U.S. Treasury yields to sustainably rise above 6% to 7%.
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