On Monday, let's talk about the overall market . Have you noticed in the past two months that there haven't been too many good opportunities for those who haven't entered the market to retrace their steps in the post bear recovery period. Always walking in a slowly rising state . From the perspective of the chain, the reason for this is that there are very few sellers (previously, around 60000 yuan, all unsold shares were brought out) But now there isn't much new money that can flow into this place. (ETF buying fluctuates based on the macro liquidity of the United States) The weekly chart has already walked out of a higher low point+a higher high point, and the trend is confirmed . The monthly chart is still one higher and lower point after a correction before it is considered complete. The reasons for long positions in large cycles are not only that the on chain model has not turned short and the price is still above several cost models, but also a few other points Leverage has not yet risen, and the overall OI is still relatively low (down 20% from the current extreme), indicating that this period of rise did not rely on leveraged speculative money. The old money on the chain has not been sold, and the long-term holders on the previous chain hold 82% of the supply, close to the historical high of 84%. The cost for short-term holders is gradually increasing to around 74k. So from the current perspective, it can still be considered as the early recovery period of the bull market. At present, we still maintain last week's view, and the long-term bullish trend has not been disrupted. In the medium term, we will continue to play in this box (the previous box lasted for 30 days, and this wave is currently 14 days) There will definitely be a higher low point at the monthly line level, but it's uncertain when it will arrive. The next point of focus will still be the CPI on October 14th next week, which will directly determine the attitude of the FOMC on October 28th. ------------- How do I know which next step is more likely? You can check the proportion of meat cut on the chain, such as SOPR SOPR mainly looks at the daily turnover on the chain, whether there are more people making money (greater than 1) or more people losing money (less than 1) In the past few cycles, SOPR has a characteristic of having more than 1 in bull markets (take profit and exit in bull markets) and less than 1 in bear markets (mostly cut meat) But some of the larger retracement buying points in the bull market are the points where some short-term customers panic about cutting meat on SOPR. So in a bull market, the return of SOPR from the positive zone to the 0 axis is a good buying point At the same time, in a bear market, SOPR's review of the 0 axis from the negative zone is also a good selling point. Please refer to Figure 1 for details And the market chart 2 before this bear market also follows the same pattern. After entering the negative zone, it was confirmed that the bear had turned, and several subsequent impacts to return to the zero axis failed (It can be understood as every major rebound in a bear market, there are a large number of short-term traders who buy at the bottom in front of them and sell in large quantities. After selling, subsequent buying cannot keep up, so they are smashed back) So why can't we go up in a bear market every time there is a lot of profitable selling (SOPR>1) during a rebound .. And now, after breaking through in mid August, this wave of repair is also a large number of short-term profit taking orders, but this wave has been caught by buying. SOPR is starting to operate in the positive zone - indicating that there are continuous short-term customers taking profits, but the price has not been hit, indicating that there are buying and receiving orders here. So this is one of the characteristics of the bear to cow transformation. At the same time, in the previous round of trading at 75k, SOPR briefly returned to the negative zone (which can be understood as a wave of short-term traders cutting losses and selling after seeing the market break, because at that time CPI was not good and interest rate hikes were expected) But later it was pushed back into the positive range by buying. Not allowing SOPR to fall back into the red negative zone is also one of the characteristics of the bear to bull conversion. So Where could the next higher monthly low point possibly occur? You can pay attention to SOPR, which is probably a place where the market breaks a level and FOMO is chasing long short-term long positions with concentrated stop loss. ---------- But in this current period where both selling and buying are not active at the same time, the upstream and downstream continue to grind ..