比特币橙子Trader|Oct 04, 2026 01:09
Whoa, Treasury yields are skyrocketing! The 10-year Treasury yield has hit 5.24%
The 10-year Treasury yield is the anchor for global asset pricing.
When the risk-free rate stays around 5% for a long time, the strategy of borrowing cheap money, buying overvalued assets, and waiting for valuation expansion starts to fail.
The last time the U.S. experienced a prolonged rise in interest rates was from the 1960s to the early 1980s.
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed from around 4% to over 15%, during a period marked by fiscal expansion, oil crises, and high inflation. It only ended with Volcker’s aggressive rate hikes. The result?
Long-term bonds got crushed, stock valuations were suppressed, and high-leverage, financing-dependent business models struggled to survive.
The most immediate impacts now are threefold:
1. Growth stock valuations remain under pressure.
2. Corporate and real estate financing is getting more expensive.
3. Cash and short-term bonds are becoming attractive again.
In the past, a tech company just had to pitch a growth story, and the market would give it a valuation dozens of times over.
Now investors ask first: “Why should I take the risk of buying you when I can earn 5% just by holding Treasuries?”
As for the crypto space, $BTC can still rely on its scarcity, monetary properties, and institutional allocation narrative. $ETH and $SOL at least have on-chain economies and cash flow expectations.
But a ton of altcoins with no revenue, no buybacks, and no real demand? They’re already on the road to zero.
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