Last night's market summary can be summed up in one sentence: weak non farm payrolls have further lowered the probability of interest rate hikes in October, AI high beta continues to dominate the market, but the signals given by the bond market are far less optimistic than those of the stock market. The core here is still oil prices and long-term bond yields. 1. In terms of oil prices: 1) On a positive level The US military escorted some oil tankers through the strait, and Saudi Aramco quickly resumed the daily transportation of about 6 million barrels of crude oil through the east-west oil pipeline, with about 4.5 million barrels per day of pipeline flow available for export. There is an expectation that the market's actual export capacity is recovering. At the same time, G7 leaders agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel oil and other oil reserves through IEA coordination. Trump also made it clear that the United States would not implement a diesel export ban. If the price difference of diesel cracking dropped significantly in the next two weeks, it would be more conducive to the Fed's inflation path than Brent's fall alone. 2) But the risk still exists As mentioned in the first tweet, 'Iran should still have the ability to stop a certain batch of ships.' Last night, the UK Maritime Trade Office (UKMTO) reported that two oil tankers were attacked in the strait, indicating that Iran still has the ability to interfere with the southern waterway; The US military is still deploying a third aircraft carrier battle group and a third amphibious marine expeditionary force to the Middle East, threatening to use force after the midterm elections; At the same time, Saudi Arabia has clearly shifted from "defense+airstrikes" in the past few weeks to "preparing to change the ground control line". According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia has begun to seriously plan a counterattack along the coast of the Mandeb Strait. All of these caused a V-shaped reversal in oil prices last night, with a first drop and then an increase. The oil price oscillates between 'possible resumption of shipping routes' and' escalation of war '. 2. Long term debt aspect Oil prices have risen again, and long-term capital costs, fiscal supply, and term premiums are still high, so US bond yields also fell first and then rose last night. At the current position, the higher the yield of long-term bonds, the greater the market pressure. On the other hand, the nominal GDP growth rate of brokers is still good, and the AI industry is continuing to evolve rapidly (as cited in a tweet summarizing recent developments in the industry). In this situation, targets with good fundamentals, strong profits, and fast performance expectations are able to withstand macroeconomic headwinds, and with a slight easing, they are prone to rebound. This is also the place where some people feel the most fragmented, the bond market feels shaky, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P and other stocks are weak, the Russell 2000 is weak, but the Nasdaq is steadily oscillating upwards, and the core is here. So this is also the tweet I'm referring to, 'The most feared thing in the current market is the rapid increase in yield.'; If it can be stabilized, the market will also slow down; The current market does not require a significant drop in returns, only a stable and slight decline, so that stocks with good performance can rise, and sectors that were previously suppressed by returns can also rise. So overall, it is: 1) At present, some strong targets can withstand the current yield level. If the yield of long-term bonds continues to soar rapidly, small cap stocks and value stocks will continue to leak, and AI and big technology will also be suppressed; 2) If the us10Y cannot stabilize (current position fluctuates), then the most logically robust targets in AI semiconductors and big technology can still withstand it and oscillate upwards, and adjust to buy on dips when encountering fluctuations. 3) But if 5.2~5.3% starts to become a new equilibrium level, and if there is a slight decline on this basis, the marginal pressure on valuation will significantly weaken. Not only will the AI technology sector continue to strengthen, but funds may also begin to spread from a few semiconductor and AI technology leaders to banks, cycles, and some small and medium-sized enterprises. Of course, the more important point is that in late October, Big Tech's third quarter financial reports will be released one after another. The market should see that the commercialization process of AI is still far beyond expectations, and the fundamentals of the US stock market are still the top priority. This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, "Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading