Pre Market Thoughts - 1 Oct 26 MU earnings were in my opinion pretty fantastic with 54B of rev vs 51B expected and gross margins of 86%...Most importantly guidance is for much tighter memory supply in 2027 and 2028 vs 2026....As a reminder, current memory PEs are priced for this to be entirely cyclical. What if its not? Multiple expansion alone could command a 2-3x rerating, because taking into account earnings growth. While the initial reaction to the earnings were very muted, i think this indicates that positioning is extremely light across the semis complex still. Going into NY session, i would think that we will get a repricing upwards in memory. In the backdrop, we have this interplay of high yields. Again, the increase in risk free rate threatens low margins businesses exponentially more than high margin businesses. Semis effectively become the cleanest sheet in the room. Valuations for semis are also at record lows. 30Y yields are about 30bps away from touching 6%. At that point, i would think policy makers are likely to start taking strong action. The seller in ES is still very much active and has taken down a lot of length in ES futures. Within the index, we see that tech, semis and energy is up. The rest of the sectors are quite lacklustre. This plays into the theme of indexes hugging the highs while the equal weighted benchmarks are underwater. On the Asia side, we have NKY and KOSPI both trading well today. $0660 is back up and the volatility of the name has dampened quite a fair bit. Across the board, IVs in memory have dropped to record lows - this is even as realised volatility has fallen. On the crypto side, majors look to be in consolidation. I would expect BTC to retest the 81k support zones next week. There is also limited liquidity in alts, with tickers taking turns to make their moves as money rotates. On chain capital pools are also looking increasingly tired as unrlz PnL evaporates. Overall, would stay cautious here unless compelling plays appear. The prior runners such as LIT and ZEC also look to be waning in momentum which is not good if your sole thesis is....momentum... Good luck!