Why can't BTC fall? This should be the inner turmoil of many friends recently. Four months ago, Micro Strategy only sold 32 BTC, which scared the market by -20%. But now, despite the 5.2% increase in US $10, the resumption of interest rate hikes has been met with various negative impacts, but it has not fallen. It has to be said that in just a few months, the world has changed ..... The fundamental reason is that the current selling pressure is not strong enough. When sellers are depleted, weak demand leads to sideways trading, while strong demand leads to pullback. The 'seller depletion index' is an indicator of supply intensity. I first shared this indicator on August 11th of this year (see citation), when the indicator entered the "extreme depletion zone" (red dashed line). BTC is hovering around $63000. Looking back, this is the last and best opportunity to enter this bear market. Because historical data shows that once BTC breaks out of the bear bottom, it is difficult for the indicator to return to the extreme zone or give such a clear buy signal. Of course, there will be multiple instances of falling into the green zone thereafter (indicated by the green dashed line), which suggests that the seller is relatively weak. At this point, relying solely on the endogenous factors of BTC cannot cause it to plummet further. Unless there is a joint push from external forces at the same time. Endogenous factors include on chain kinetic energy attenuation, decreased activity, fund divergence, and so on; Although these can limit the short-term upward space, the extent of the decline will also be relatively limited due to weak selling pressure. Recently, when BTC fell back to $75K, the indicator entered the green zone, which may have been a good opportunity. However, in recent days, the indicator has rebounded a bit. Will it fall into the red zone again? No one actually knows. At least for now, the statement in the tweet on August 11th that "those who have already established positions are not wrong; those who will establish positions again when the next signal appears are also correct" may be incorrect. The risk of ignoring opportunities and choosing to wait for the next one is in case there is no next one. If there are flowers that can be broken, they must be broken. Don't wait for the flowers to fall and the branches to be broken .....