Hupzy (Spot On Chain)|Sep 30, 2026 13:42
Headline PCE fell to ๐ฏ.๐ฐ% (vs 3.7% forecast) and core to 3.0% (vs 3.3% forecast), but the BEA simultaneously changed methodology for three categories โ portfolio management fees, computer software, and legal services โ revising data back to 2021.
๐๐๐ฝ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ: The portfolio management change is the largest: the new employment-based measure strips out asset-value effects, mechanically lowering measured inflation. Up to ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฏ๐ฝ of the core PCE reduction may be artificial, not genuine disinflation. The market is discounting today's release โ October rate hike odds are falling, but the dovish signal is muddied by the methodology confound.
BTC and SP500 remain the cross-asset proxies for rate expectations, but directional conviction is weaker than the headline miss suggests. Wait for the next CPI print and Fed speaker commentary for a cleaner read on the rate path.
source: KobeissiLetter
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