Seth|Sep 29, 2026 18:15
CRCL is not a stablecoin company. It's a bet on who owns the rails of internet money.
USDC did $14.8 TRILLION in onchain volume last quarter. Up 151% YoY.
In June it handled almost 70% of all stablecoin transaction volume. A year ago it was 36%.
Tether is bigger. USDC is what actually moves.
Circle now holds a federal bank charter. One of the first stablecoin issuers to get one. When banks and asset managers go onchain they need a regulated counterparty. Circle already has the licenses.
Then there's Arc.
Their own L1, launched Sept 16. BlackRock, Visa, Mastercard and DTCC are on it. BlackRock is bringing BUIDL. DTCC starts tokenizing assets in 2027.
The CEO says Arc could be bigger than USDC.
AI agents? 99.3% of x402 agent payments settle in USDC.
Management is guiding 40% yearly growth in USDC supply.
$73B today. Compound that and you're near $280B by 2030.
The risks are real. 95% of revenue still comes from interest on reserves, so rate cuts hurt. COIN takes a big cut. And the stock is not cheap.
But if onchain dollars become how the world settles money, Circle is the Visa + DTCC of that system.
That's the 2029 bet for Wallstreet and @jerallaire
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