Caleb Franzen
Caleb Franzen|Sep 29, 2026 09:34
I don't know who needs to hear this (apparently a lot of people), but bull markets don't mean "everything goes up simultaneously, the same magnitude, together, all at once." Remember when staples were leaders in Q4'25 & Q1'26? Or when value was a leader starting in Q4'25? Or what about when financials and industrials led the way higher? All at the expense of tech underperforming and lagging. Was the bull market over then? Clearly, no. So now that tech, mega-caps, and growth are leading again (the market has rotated back into the typical bull market leaders), does the underperformance of financials, industrials, staples, utilities, etc. mean that the bull market is over now? No. It's just rotation. Literally a month ago, the VIX tied the cycle lows. Low VIX regimes are... bullish. Literally a month ago, credit spreads made new cycle lows. Low credit spread regimes are... bullish. Crude oil is slipping. Real GDP growth estimates for Q3'25 are +5.0% (QoQ annualized), per the Atlanta Federal Reserve. Even the notoriously conservative NY Fed Nowcast is forecasting +2.33% growth for real GDP in Q3'26. Initial unemployment claims made new all-time lows three months ago and remain near those lows today, at 197k weekly claims. The unemployment rate is 4.1%, down from the peak of 4.5% in Q4'25. Average hourly earnings, while decelerating, is +3.1% YoY. But if you look at the 3M average wage growth from the Atlanta Fed (wage growth tracker), it's been accelerating and is currently measured at +4.1% YoY. Labor productivity (output per labor hour), updated quarterly, came in at +2.2% YoY. PMIs for services and manufacturing are growing (above 50) and accelerating. Industrial production is about to make all-time highs, encroaching on the highest levels since 2007, 2014, and 2018, while growing at a modest pace of +1.4% YoY. For nonfarm payrolls, the monthly change has been positive in 7 of 8 months in 2026, averaging +80k jobs per month. And don't get me started on S&P 500 earnings growth... Anyways, the economy isn't perfect. There are aspects that are strong. There are aspects that are outright weak, like construction spending. But the holistic picture of the economy is emblematic of one that is resilient & dynamic... one that has been able to absorb energy shocks, rate hikes, geopolitical risks, trade wars, etc. It hasn't cracked, despite constant headlines month after month about canaries in the coal mine that are foreshadowing a recession. Where is it? The economy is resilient and dynamic, as I've said for years. Within this macro environment, it will accelerate. It will also go through periods of deceleration. But the whole point is the following... This bull market in risk assets has been able to sustain itself on the back of the resilient & dynamic macro regime. This bull market has not required perfection from macro. This bull market has experienced many periods of "weak breadth" and none of those periods were a valid reason to sell stocks. On the contrary, they were opportunities for investors who didn't believe in the weak breadth boogeyman. I've been saying it since the weak breadth argument began in 2023... You can either complain about weak breadth (and underperform). Or... You can own the stocks that are actually going up. The first one is victim mentality: "oh I'm not performing well because breadth is bad and there's nothing I could do about it and I'm just subjected to the whims of the market and Risk XYZ and omg I don't know what to do so I'm just going to complain because other people are getting rich". The second one takes responsibility: "there's opportunity in this market if I take the time to actually understand what's working and what's not working, so I'm going to give myself the best chance to own the best stocks without taking irresponsible risk and I can live with the consequences if I'm wrong (or manage risk to get out if I'm wrong)". You see the difference? I haven't even mentioned Bitcoin yet, which is now back in a bull market regime after breaking above its 2-day 200 MA cloud. I've shared several original studies over the past 5 weeks, all in real-time, sharing the statistical signals that have flashed for Bitcoin. These studies, generally, point to strong upside over the subsequent 3M, 6M and 1Y periods. So I see a bull market in equities with a correction under the hood as leadership rotated, with a resurgence in Bitcoin to assert itself back into an uptrend. What's not to like? I'm still long & strong. Embrace nuance.
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