律动BlockBeats|Sep 29, 2026 00:07
[Rare in 25 Years! 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Surpasses S&P 500 Earnings Yield]
BlockBeats News, September 29: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 5%, exceeding the earnings yield of the S&P 500 Index measured by the inverse of its price-to-earnings ratio. This has elevated the relative attractiveness of bonds compared to stocks to the highest level in approximately 25 years. This means that, purely from a yield comparison perspective, the returns investors receive from holding U.S. Treasuries now exceed the current earnings yield of stocks.
According to Yale University economist Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted excess CAPE yield model, based on current stock valuations and Treasury yield levels, the S&P 500 Index may outperform bonds by only about 1% annually over the next 10 years. However, the predictive accuracy of this model has declined in recent years, as the actual stock market performance has significantly exceeded its previous forecasts.
The current high yields partly reflect the resilience of the U.S. economy, but they also impose higher demands on stock valuations and corporate earnings expectations. Investors who previously bet on long-term U.S. Treasuries have suffered losses due to falling bond prices, but the rise of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield above 5% has prompted a reassessment of the value of bond allocations.
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