On-chain value realization can be seen as all the actual funds flowing into BTC (as long as they’re on-chain). As shown in the chart, the current three-phase structure of breaking out of the bear market bottom is very similar to 2023. Phase 1: Capital shifts from 'large outflows' to 'slowing outflows.' Phase 2: Capital transitions from 'net outflows' to 'net inflows,' kicking off the first wave. Phase 3: Capital maintains net inflows but starts to diverge from price trends. Right now, we’re in 'Phase 3.' Back in 2023, after completing all three phases, we saw a 'decent' correction, with the depth reaching STH-RP. Those who experienced it might remember that it was also compounded by several external factors, including: hawkish shifts in macro interest rate expectations, and the collapse of crypto-friendly banks. Will this cycle fully repeat itself? We don’t know. However, as long as the divergence between capital and price persists, the momentum will weaken over time. Until the next strong wave of capital inflows breaks this pattern.