Beans in the Teens vs. Hedge Funds, Brazil, Diesel Global soybeans stocks-to-use are above the five-year average, managed money is the most net-long at the end of 3Q since 2012, while the US harvest is underway and prices are rising on the back of record-setting diesel. What can go wrong? My graphic highlights Brazil's shift to price maker, as evidenced by the nation representing 44% of global soybean production in 2026 vs. roughly 24% in 2006 -- an almost 2x increase in two decades. It may take some combination of a poor South American production year and diesel prices avoiding a typical high-price cure for soybeans to stay in the teens. At $13.19 a bushel on Sept. 25, the front soybean future is roughly 25% above the roughly $10-$11 breakeven cost of production in Brazil and the US. The potential for the US to curtail diesel exports and/or some detente with Iran could push beans back toward costs. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/tlwx57kijhal {BI COMD} #soybeans #futures #Brazil #diesel @BBGIntelligence