星球日报
星球日报|9月 23, 2026 13:39
[Ye Tan: The Internet Era is Coming to an End, the AI Era Has Already Begun] Odaily Planet Daily News – During the 'Ye Tan - Under the Cycle' private seminar, in the 'Binance Lounge' segment, renowned economist Ye Tan shared her insights on topics such as the Kondratiev wave, changes in China's economic structure, and the flow of wealth. She stated that if we are currently at a turning point in the Kondratiev cycle, the Internet era is nearing its end, and AI has already become the new direction for growth. Moreover, this wave of transformation has essentially already started. Ye Tan pointed out that against the backdrop of a general decline in investment in China, investments in AI-related infrastructure are still at the scale of tens of trillions of yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate exceeding 10%. If related plans extend to 2030, social wealth and resources may continue to tilt toward AI and other emerging industries. However, she also emphasized that there are differences within AI's sub-sectors and market fluctuations, and industrial growth does not necessarily guarantee profitability for related investments. From the perspective of China's economic cycle, Ye Tan believes that over the past 40-plus years, China has rapidly completed multiple stages, including manufacturing, foundational industries, and informatization. The speed of economic structural shifts has significantly accelerated, leading to sharp divergences between different assets and industries. Using real estate and high-tech industries as examples, she noted that during the same period, different industries and groups may experience economic cycles in completely different ways, essentially reflecting the redistribution of wealth across various sectors. On a mid-cycle level, geopolitical factors are also influencing industry prosperity. Ye Tan cited the shipping industry as an example, explaining that blockages in the Red Sea shipping lanes have lengthened shipping routes and reduced vessel turnover efficiency, objectively increasing shipping companies' demand for more vessels, thereby extending the prosperity cycle of the shipping industry. Regarding the current economic environment, Ye Tan stated that traditional manufacturing and some consumer industries may be at the end of their recession cycles and are gradually bottoming out. At the same time, new industries are rising, creating a clear structural divergence. She believes that while cycles themselves do not directly tell investors what to buy, they can help observe where wealth and capital are flowing and where risks are accumulating. Finally, Ye Tan emphasized that different investors have varying tools and risk tolerance levels. Investment decisions should be made based on individual circumstances, with small-scale trial-and-error and acting within one's means.
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