[Standard Chartered: Real Interest Rate Pressure on Gold Weakens, Q4 Average Price May Reach $4,650] BlockBeats News, September 22, Standard Chartered Bank stated that after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week, gold did not continue to weaken, and the traditional negative correlation between gold and real interest rates is diminishing. The bank predicts that the average price of gold in the fourth quarter of 2026 will reach $4,650 per ounce, higher than the current third-quarter average of approximately $4,350 per ounce. Suki Cooper, Head of Global Commodities Research at Standard Chartered Bank, noted that structural factors such as de-dollarization, currency depreciation, and continued gold purchases by official sectors are providing support for gold prices. Data shows that the correlation coefficient between gold and 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields is currently close to -20% and -10%, respectively, and the negative correlation with 2-year and 5-year real yields has also significantly weakened. Meanwhile, inflows into gold ETFs have continued to recover, with a single-month inflow of 121 tons in August, the highest since September 2025. Standard Chartered believes that speculative positioning in gold is not currently overcrowded, and profit-taking ahead of the September Federal Reserve meeting has partially reduced long exposure, thereby limiting further selling pressure after the rate hike. However, Standard Chartered considers the U.S. dollar to remain the primary short-term risk for gold. The bank's economists expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates again in December and then maintain rates unchanged throughout 2027. Cooper stated that the negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar is currently significantly stronger than its correlation with real interest rates. If the dollar strengthens further, it could exert short-term pressure on gold prices. [Original Link]