看不懂的SOL|Sep 22, 2026 02:37
Brothers, we talked about raising interest rates earlier and also talked about how to look at the chart. Putting two things together, one can understand a problem:
Why does the interest rate hike meet expectations, but the market may not necessarily be 'bearish'?
Because everyone is not only calculating how much interest rate will be raised today, but also how long money will be expensive in the future.
Assuming the market originally expected that another interest rate hike would end, and there would be a rate cut soon next year; But now it has been discovered that interest rates may remain at high levels for a longer period of time. Even if only the expected 25 basis points are added this time, the assets still need to be revalued.
What is truly worth paying attention to this time is the interest rate forecast for the next few years.
In the forecast released in September, the median interest rate at the end of 2026 was raised from 3.8% in June to 4.1%; By the end of 2027, it will be raised from 3.6% to 4.1%; By the end of 2028, it will be raised from 3.4% to 3.9%.
Compared to just focusing on raising interest rates a few more times this year, I am more concerned about next year: if high interest rates persist longer than previously imagined, both businesses and investors will have to recalculate their accounts.
Of course, these numbers are only judgments made by officials based on current information, not a predetermined policy calendar.
Why is' longer 'so important?
For enterprises, holding on to a short-term interest rate hike and having to bear higher financing costs for the next one or two years are two different things. Especially for companies that need to constantly borrow new and repay old debts, and whose profits are unstable, the pressure may gradually manifest.
For stocks, if all other conditions remain unchanged and the discount rate increases, the valuation today will decrease for the same future profit. Assets that rely more on long-term growth stories are usually more sensitive.
But don't draw the conclusion that 'you can't buy tech stocks' just because of this. Companies with ample cash and sustained profit growth have different levels of resilience compared to those that rely on financing to sustain expansion.
So next, I will shift my focus from "guessing whether to raise interest rates next time" to corporate profitability, debt maturity arrangements, and the price I bought myself.
The fixed investment plan also needs to consider time.
You can't just talk about the long term, but the funds are only enough to last for two months; We cannot assume that every drop will immediately rebound and buy all the reserve funds in advance.
My approach is still to control the basic investment within the range that the cash flow can sustain, and to set a separate budget for additional positions. If there are changes in income status or asset logic, reevaluate instead of mechanically buying more and more as the price drops.
The connection between these contents is actually very simple: understanding interest rates is not about always being ahead of the market, but about making one's investment plan not rely on the assumption that interest rates will be cut soon.
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