看不懂的SOL
看不懂的SOL|Sep 18, 2026 07:07
Brothers, in this resolution of the Federal Reserve, it is easy to be confused: while raising interest rates, they said to buy treasury bond bonds when necessary. Is it tightening or releasing water? These two things can happen simultaneously, the key depends on what to buy and why to buy. Raising interest rates is raising the price of funds. The target interest rate range has been raised to 3.75% -4.00% this time, mainly targeting high inflation. The purpose of buying bonds mentioned in the implementation documents is to maintain sufficient reserves in the banking system and ensure the normal operation of the short-term capital market. Give priority to the purchase of treasury bonds, and if necessary, buy other US treasury bond bonds with a residual maturity of no more than 3 years. It can be simply understood as: borrowing money can be more expensive, but payment, settlement, and interbank financing cannot fail due to excessive funding constraints. This is not the same as large-scale quantitative easing aimed at stimulating the economy and lowering long-term interest rates. We cannot simply conclude that a bull market is coming just because we see the Federal Reserve buying bonds. However, technical operations do not mean that they have no impact on the market at all. It may alleviate short-term financial pressure, but it cannot be judged solely based on this one that monetary policy has shifted towards easing. There is another easily misunderstood word: expiration extension. After the maturity of the treasury bond held by the Federal Reserve, the principal will continue to be invested in treasury bond, mainly to maintain the position, which does not mean that every time there is an equal amount of new stimulus. It needs to be viewed separately from expanding the purchase scale by paying separately. When it comes to investment, I will observe two things separately: One is whether the capital market is smooth, and the other is whether high interest rates have eased the pressure on corporate profitability and valuation. The improvement of the former does not mean that the latter will automatically disappear. For fixed investment, there is no need to stop all investments just because of the "interest rate hike" and suddenly double when you see the "bond buying". More practically, check your cash flow: whether your income is stable in the next few months, whether the fixed investment amount will squeeze your living expenses, and whether your position can withstand another drop. Extra warehousing requires a budget, and every policy news should not be used as a reason to use contingency funds. The reminder given to me in this document is that when looking at policies, we cannot just recognize the keywords of "interest rate hikes" and "buying bonds". First see what problem it solves, and then see if it changes its investment assumptions. After understanding clearly, many seemingly contradictory messages actually don't need to be tossed back and forth.
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