The Kobeissi Letter|Sep 20, 2026 16:35
Stocks are becoming more sensitive to sharp moves in the Treasury market:
The 30-day correlation between the ICE BofA MOVE Index and the S&P 500 is up to -0.58, its highest since mid-June.
The MOVE index, also called the "VIX of bonds," measures the yield volatility of 2Y, 5Y 10Y, and 30Y Treasuries.
This means rapid increases in bond volatility are now translating into larger declines in stock prices.
A similar phenomenon took place in March this year and in April 2025, when violent moves in the MOVE Index exacerbated market selloffs.
The index has now surged +8.0% over the last week, to 80.7 points, near its highest level since mid-May.
Bond volatility is again becoming a key driver of stocks.
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