Commodities May Face Lose-Lose vs. the Fed, Energy The fed funds futures one-year spread (FF13-FF1), almost 80 bps of rate hikes and Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index (BCOM) at multi-decade highs vs. T-bonds may be a bad combination for sustaining higher commodity prices. Surging energy, on the back of the Iran war, is what pushed markets to these extremes, and might suggest a primary force for reversion. History has plenty of examples of energy crises breaking stuff, especially economies and stock markets. What's notable about BCOM vs. the Bloomberg US Treasury 20+ Year Total Return Index near its 2008 peak is a similar pattern that year of plunging FF13-FF1. What differs from the onset of the Great Recession is that FF13-FF1 was signaling rate hikes after aggressive cuts. Raising rates now, amid an energy crisis, could create a difficult backdrop for broad commodities. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/tleeh9kgzaio {BI COMD} #Federalresreve #energy #commodities @BBGIntelligence