Brothers, the Fed's interest rate hike series is coming to its final chapter. In the first two articles, we talked about what a 25 basis point interest rate hike means and explained why "raising interest rates" and "buying short-term bonds" can occur simultaneously. Today, let's focus on ourselves: what to focus on next and how to arrange the investment plan? First of all, remember one difference: interest rate hikes have already occurred, but the subsequent path has not been determined yet. Just because all the votes passed this time, we cannot assume that we will continue to add more every time in the future. Next, I will focus on three directions. Firstly, has inflation continued to cool down. Year on year reflects the changes of the past year, while month on month can better help observe recent price pressures, as the two may have different directions. If you cannot see a year-on-year decrease, it is considered that the problem has been solved; We cannot assert that inflation is completely out of control just because of a one month rebound. Energy, housing, and service prices should be examined separately, while also paying attention to PCE. The Fed's 2% long-term inflation target corresponds to PCE, rather than directly comparing it with core CPI. Secondly, how long can employment and consumption last. This statement believes that the economy is still expanding steadily. But the policy impact lags behind, and if recruitment, consumption, and corporate profits significantly weaken in the future, it needs to be reassessed. Moreover, the expectation of interest rate cuts brought about by economic downturn may not immediately benefit the stock market. The financing cost may decrease, but the profitability of the enterprise may also be under pressure. Thirdly, energy prices and geopolitical risks. The continuous rise in oil prices may not only push up inflation, but also increase the burden on businesses and residents. So we can't just focus on the next interest rate negotiation, we also need to see what is driving policy changes. When it comes to fixed investment, my approach is to separate "fixed investment" from "additional warehousing". Basic fixed investment is arranged based on sustainable cash flow; Set a budget and conditions in advance for additional positions, so as not to double the purchase just because of a one-day drop, and not to use living expenses and emergency funds. If interest rates continue to rise, check whether the position is too heavy and whether the assets in hand are overly dependent on high valuations; If the interest rate hike is suspended, there is no rush to fill the remaining budget at once. The reduction in fixed investment is due to timing pressure, not loss risk. The income has changed, the use of funds has changed, and the plan also needs to be adjusted. When three articles are connected, they actually want to say one thing: first, see what the policy has done, then understand how it affects assets, and finally decide how to act. I don't need to guess the Federal Reserve correctly every time, but I need to ensure that if I guess wrong, my life and investment plans can continue.