Oil prices, oil prices, damn oil prices. WTI. The 25 basis point rate hike is confirmed, then Waller speaks, still mentioning the possibility of more hikes this year. Yet, U.S. stock indices slightly rose pre-market, and Bitcoin held steady above 76. First off, the 25 bps hike for September was priced in long ago. Back then, U.S. stocks dropped, and BTC also dipped a bit. But now, with Waller’s hawkish remarks... The market’s reaction translates to: ‘You’re bluffing. It’s still far from October, and December is even further away. What if oil prices drop? How are you going to hike then? Look, oil prices have already fallen to around 96 these past two days. Let’s pump the market for now.’ Indeed, today the Iranian foreign minister met with the Saudi foreign minister. Plus, next week Trump is set to meet Gulf leaders to discuss Iran. It all seems to signal a more relaxed stance, and WTI hasn’t surged further. But if oil prices stay at 100 or even higher, just watch the market tank. At least for now, whether there’s a rate hike in October or December is still up for debate. Nothing’s priced in yet—it all depends on oil prices. From the K-line structure, there does seem to be a reversal pattern forming. Now it’s just a matter of whether the easing news and Strait of Hormuz navigation agreements can follow through. If not, and oil prices shoot back above 100, risk markets are going to suffer again. As for me, I’m still holding onto my oil short positions. Thankfully, fees have dropped a lot recently. Hoping to see some real geopolitical easing by next week.