JPMorgan Chase has plotted a scatter diagram of Federal Reserve rate hike and rate cut months since 1971, based on the ISM Manufacturing Employment Index and Prices Paid Index at the time. In August 2026, the Employment Index was 51.2, and the Prices Paid Index was 71.1, falling into the 'employment expansion, elevated cost pressure' zone. In this zone, the brown dots representing rate hikes are noticeably more frequent than the blue dots representing rate cuts. This suggests that under the current combination of expanding manufacturing employment and high input prices, rate hikes align more closely with historical response patterns.