If you look at ETF data, there is a net inflow today, a net outflow tomorrow, a net inflow the day after tomorrow, and a net outflow the day after tomorrow, what does this mean? Do you feel confused? But in fact, it doesn't have to be that complicated. To determine whether it's selling more or buying more, just look at the balance? The trend of balance changes can better reflect the overall mentality and behavior of participants. The total balance of the current US BTC spot ETF is 126.5w BTC; Among them, BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC account for a total of 76%, so we will only look at these two, and the rest can be ignored. Moreover, in the usual sense, BlackRock institutions account for a larger proportion, and Fidelity itself is also one of the largest retail securities firms in the United States. Comparing the data of two companies separately makes it even more interesting: The peak balance of IBIT occurred in May of this year, not at the top of the bull market. It seems that BlackRock's clients have been buying at the bottom since February, and by May, their holdings had reached a record high of 82.2 million BTC. The lowest in July was 72.9 million pieces, and then it began to rise again. By September 3rd, a total of 5.5w pieces had been added. The key is that from September 3rd to September 4th, BTC prices fell, but the balance did not decrease, making it insensitive to short-term price fluctuations. FBTC is completely different from IBIT. Its balance peak appeared at the peak of the bull market, after which the price continued to decline and the balance continued to decrease. During the period from February to May this year, it only maintained a general level and showed no signs of increasing holdings. On August 16th, the balance of FBTC dropped to its lowest point, with only 170000 BTC. That is to say, before this round of price increase, FBTC's customers were still selling non-stop. This is a typical 'retail behavior', which perfectly matches the pessimistic sentiment of seeing 4w/3w on Twitter at that time. Afterwards, as the price rose, the balance of FBTC increased by 5-6k coins. Not much, but from the paragraphs of 9/3-9/4, there is also no significant decrease. So, overall, at least for now, the sentiment of American investors is relatively stable and has not returned to panic due to macro uncertainty. However, both major purchasing power companies have clearly not yet entered a frenzy mode, and their balances still have a certain gap from their previous highs. So, at this stage, it can only be considered as the transition period between bear and bull, and the bull return should still be early.