Many people believe that a rate hike is inevitable this time, so there is no need to worry. After all, we won't know in two days. The key is what the Federal Reserve's path will be like today and beyond, that is, how the dot matrix should be. The proportion of the July meeting was 9:3, with three members of the voting committee clearly voting to demand a 25bp interest rate hike, namely Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan. The changes that occur after the meeting are more important. In addition to the original three individuals, there are five other members of the committee who have made statements similar to raising interest rates or making the market understand them as such Lisa Cook made it clear on August 5th that if it is necessary to reduce inflation, I will support raising interest rates. If there is no sustained decrease in inflation soon, I am prepared to take action. This belongs to a very clear conditional interest rate hike stance. Michael Barr said on September 1st that if inflation does not sufficiently cool down, the FOMC should take decisive action to raise interest rates. It also belongs to explicit conditional support. Anna Paulson stated on August 4th that if underlying inflation continues to remain high, and time passes without any progress in inflation, it itself indicates the need for tighter monetary policy. Although she did not directly mention a rate hike in September, the direction is clearly hawkish. Christopher Waller said on September 3rd that if inflation heats up again, he will consider raising interest rates. But at that time, his benchmark inclination was still to maintain interest rates unchanged if inflation continued. Kevin Warsh: Jackson Hole said that if we cannot be confident that inflation is returning to 2% quickly enough, the Federal Reserve still has work to do. The market generally understands this as opening the door for interest rate hikes, but he has never directly stated his support for a rate hike in September. So personally, I think that currently there should be 5 members of the Federal Reserve's vote committee who clearly support interest rate hikes, while the Fed's vote committee is 12 members. Based on the current statement, at least 1 person is needed to tie and 2 people are needed to confirm interest rate hikes. But if there is really a rate hike in September, the September inflation data seen in October is likely to be higher, and if Hormuz really has to wait until November or even longer to lift the lockdown, there is still a possibility of another rate hike in October and December. Also, let's take a look at the formation chart. The dot matrix may be more hawkish than the actual situation.