Today, the CLARITY Act saw a pretty significant turning point. The main reason is that Trump finally made major concessions on the most contentious 'ethics clause,' while the Republicans adjusted several controversial points—like stablecoin yields, DeFi developer protections, anti-money laundering, and trading platform conflicts of interest—toward the Democrats' stance. Polymarket's probability for 'signed into law by 2026' has risen to 32%. If the Senate gets ≥60 votes tomorrow, the Senate will officially move into bill deliberation, but CLARITY still hasn’t 'passed the Senate.' The version currently being discussed in the Senate is already different from the one previously passed by the House, so after the Senate passes it, the House must either accept the exact same text or the two sides will need to continue negotiating. The House leadership has already canceled voting schedules for the weeks of September 21 and 28, and by mid-September, they’ll essentially enter the midterm election phase. So even if it gets over 60 votes tomorrow, I think the most realistic window for final signing has likely shifted to after the November midterms. If it gets only 55–59 votes tomorrow, the result will be tricky. The bill would fail procedurally, but it would show that the two parties are just a few votes away from a deal. The Republicans might still revise the text and try again after the midterms. If it gets fewer than about 55 votes, it would mean today’s ethics concessions still failed to sway the Democrats, and it’s unlikely this Congress will get it done. By 2027, the new Congress would need to restart the legislative process, and at that point, the direction of the new text will depend on which party controls the two chambers after the midterms.