Crypto friends across the internet are divided into two camps when it comes to $BTC bull vs. bear: 1) The bear market isn’t over yet, and $BTC could drop to around $58K or even above $50K; 2) The bear market is over, the bull market has started, and any pullbacks are buying opportunities. I’m with camp #2, and here’s my reasoning: (1) $57,800 precisely touched the 200-week moving average. Historically, every time $BTC hit the 200-week MA, it confirmed the bottom. (2) The price dropped to the major Fibonacci retracement 0.382 level, a strong gravitational zone. (3) Whales and long-term holders are accumulating, and institutions like BlackRock and other ETF players are also buying in. (4) The general consensus is that $BTC will drop to above $50K or even lower, but the market often moves against the crowd. (5) AI is America’s lifeline, a national strategy, and also one of China’s key strategies. The U.S. won’t sacrifice its national strategy by aggressively hiking rates. Rate hikes won’t crash the stock market or cause $BTC to keep plummeting—they’ll only affect the depth of bull market pullbacks. The $BTC bull market is in its early stages. This doesn’t mean it’ll skyrocket to the moon immediately or go on a wild bull run. There will be repeated bottoming and topping processes, and it’s highly likely we’ll see a retest to confirm the bottom price. In my opinion, in an extreme scenario, $BTC could drop to as low as $64K–$71K. $64K is a key structural level above the 200-week MA. If it breaks, the weekly bottom structure will be severely damaged. This would only delay the start of the bull market, but it won’t extinguish it or lead to a deep bear market.