Phyrex
Phyrex|Sep 13, 2026 09:04
Beisen supports stabilizing the Japanese yen exchange rate, also to prevent rising financing costs in the United States Bessent recently publicly warned Japanese yen bears, 'Now I am the banker' and 'You can bet against me'. He emphasized that he understands the actions that the Bank of Japan and Japanese policy makers may take next, and if traders continue to short, they need to consider the losses caused by sudden policy changes. My personal understanding is that the first thing to consider is the interests of the United States itself. Besent stated in his letter on August 27th that the disorderly fluctuations of the yen could lead to forced liquidation, impact global markets, and ultimately increase borrowing costs for American households and businesses. The exchange rate issue in Japan may also become a financing problem for the United States itself. One issue that needs attention is Japan's sale of US Treasury bonds in order to intervene in the exchange rate. Japan can prevent the yen from continuing to depreciate significantly by selling US dollars and buying Japanese yen in the market. Japan holds a large amount of US Treasury bonds in its foreign exchange reserves and can raise US dollars by selling these assets if necessary. If the scale of sales is relatively large, it may put pressure on US bond prices, push up yields, and increase the cost of issuing new bonds and refinancing maturing debts for the US government. In August of this year, Japan's official reserve assets decreased by about 79.6 billion US dollars, marking the largest decline in a single month. So I think if the coordination between the United States and Japan can stabilize market expectations and reduce the need for Japan to repeatedly intervene in the future, there is a chance to reduce the pressure on Japan to sell US bonds in order to raise US dollars. For the United States, helping Japan obtain US dollars while avoiding concentrated selling of US bonds also has the benefit of maintaining its own market stability. If the Japanese yen can recover in an orderly manner relative to the US dollar, it may also improve the price competitiveness of American exporters. The weaker the Japanese yen, the more Japanese yen a Japanese buyer needs to pay for the same American product priced in US dollars. After the recovery of the Japanese yen, the cost for Japanese buyers to purchase American goods will decrease while the US dollar price remains unchanged, and the partial price advantage gained by Japanese companies relying on the weak yen may also decrease. However, the cost of importing Japanese goods into the United States may also increase, so the impact on exporters and importers is not the same. Moreover, the scope considered by Besent also includes other Asian currencies. He had previously stated that a weak yen would affect the Korean won and make China less willing to let the renminbi appreciate significantly. So I think he is speaking so strongly now, hoping to make the yen bears recalculate their risks. Previously, traders needed to assess whether Japan would intervene, and now they also need to consider whether the United States will continue to participate, as well as whether Japan will have other policy cooperation in the future. If these warnings can encourage some bears to voluntarily reduce their positions, the government has the opportunity to stabilize the exchange rate with less actual buying. But if the Japanese yen appreciates too quickly, it may also hurt the US market. The Japanese yen has long been used as a financing currency for carry trades, meaning borrowing yen and then buying other currencies or overseas assets. For funds that have not fully hedged against exchange rate risks, the rapid appreciation of the yen will increase the cost of buying back yen to repay loans. If the losses expand or additional margin is required, some funds may be forced to sell assets to close positions. If the position involves US stocks and bonds, closing pressure may also spread to the US market. Therefore, I am more inclined to believe that the support of Besant and the United States may be limited. As long as the yen is freed from disorderly depreciation, it may stop trading. We need to reduce the selling pressure on US bonds that may be caused by Japan's repeated intervention, and also avoid a sudden surge in the yen that may trigger concentrated liquidation. @Gate Crypto、 US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, South Korean stocks, gold CFD、 Predicting one-stop trading in the market
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