Why is the market rising in the evening CPI of August, with three core CPI ratios slightly higher than expected? The core is that oil prices and long-term bond yields are falling, offsetting the impact of core CPI. Let's talk about my opinion: 1. The energy pressure is concentrated on fuel, and core services have rebounded, but the contribution of price increases is concentrated in communication, hotels, and air tickets, and the actual rent and equivalent rent for homeowners have slowed down instead. There is a 90% probability that the FOMC will raise interest rates next week based on market pricing. But no more interest rate hikes have been priced yet; 2. The biggest impact on the market today is not CPI, but oil prices The market revealed before the release of CPI that Gulf countries will contact Iran next week to try to ease shipping restrictions; At that time, there were signs of stabilization in the bond market, and US stock futures were also recovering. Because this is the most important point, today's oil prices and shipping news will affect the market's judgment of energy costs for September, October, and even longer. Everyone is also aware that oil prices are the main force behind this wave of inflation rebound. If oil prices can go down, inflation should be weaker rather than stronger; 3. One driving factor for the increase in long-term bond yields is the decline in oil prices, which in turn leads to a corresponding decrease in long-term bond yields. The buffer brought by the decline in oil prices has driven the yield of long-term bonds to fall, offsetting some of the impact of CPI. Or it can also be said that bad data did not push up yields, which is a turning point signal worth paying attention to. As tweeted during the day, without the suppression of oil prices and long-term debt, the S&P should have reached 8000 points. So it is worth paying more attention to the trend of oil prices and long-term bond yields in the future. As long as they do not continue to push upwards, it is a marginal improvement for the market and the risk is weakening. In addition, with the strong fundamentals of the industry, the biggest risk factor is weakening, and emotions are rising. This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'